President Donald Trump has seen recent setbacks in his polling numbers on many issues, but one bright spot in surveys has been his aggressive approach to Venezuela, including taking out drug cartel boats. But there is another purpose at work here, one that may help to end the war in Ukraine.
What is important to understand is that Venezuela is a client state of Russia, as is Iran, and as was Syria until the recent overthrow of Bashar al-Assad. One by one, Trump has been proving that against American might, Putin cannot keep his sketchy global friends safe.
‘Russia’s track record with allies like Iran, Syria, and now Venezuela reveals a familiar pattern,’ Peter Duran, adjunct senior fellow for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told me. ‘The Kremlin will make lavish statements of support, but provide minimal backing when real threats emerge to its clients.’
Noting how thin PUtin is stretched by the war in Ukraine and U.S. sanctions, Duran said ‘keeping Maduro in power is a bridge too far for Moscow if President Trump presses the issue.’
One can almost see Trump’s main Ukraine negotiator, Steve Witkoff, saying to a Russian counterpart, ‘How’s your boy Maduro, doing? Seems to be having a tough time. I wish we could help …’
While Putin has been murdering Ukrainians and maintaining the largest European land war in generations, Trump has been weakening Russian global power. Syria is making nice with America, Iran has been de-nuclearized and now that leaves Venezuela.
In recent weeks, Russian cargo planes have been seen flying into Venezuela. Nobody is ever quite sure if they are there to bring supplies, or perhaps at some point, to airlift Maduro to an early retirement in Moscow, where al-Assad now resides.
It is a very telling situation, because the entire reason that Putin invaded Ukraine was that he believes it falls under Russia’s sphere of influence. Yet, without putting a single soldier in combat, the United States has marshalled support for Ukraine that has stymied the Russian dictator.
For almost four years now, Putin has sent his own armies into a meat grinder, employed North Korean mercenaries and expended more treasure than seen in all the ‘Pirates of the Caribbean’ movies combined. It’s been little avail in terms of breaking the stalemate.
Compare that with America’s situation regarding Venezuela. We could take out Maduro tomorrow and there’s not a damn thing Putin could do about it.
In fact, this week’s new National Security Strategy statement from the Trump administration doubles down on a Monroe Doctrine-like policy of putting the Western Hemisphere first and foremost in our security goals.
But rightfully putting our own backyard first does not mean that Trump or America are exiting from the global stage. In fact, much the opposite is true.
Trump understands the global chess board. He knows that, while direct conflict with Russia could lead to global war, picking off the Kremlin’s rogue client states around the edges is fair game, and puts pressure on the center of that board.
‘President Trump’s big stick approach to Venezuela recalls Theodore Roosevelt’s approach to the region. Instead of gunboat diplomacy, Trump is deploying supercarrier diplomacy,’ Duran told me. ‘A quiet retirement abroad is the best option for Maduro before options narrow further. Putin won’t be able to save him.’
Trump has put Putin in an incredibly tough position here. If the dictator remains dedicated to his fantasy of reclaiming all of Ukraine to restore the USSR, he risks the United States undermining his allies and clients across the globe.
Russia may be faced with the choice of regaining what it believes is its territorial integrity at the price of no longer being a global superpower.
Trump is proving again, as he once told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, that he holds all the cards. At the moment, he is playing them masterfully, tightening the noose around Russia as its geopolitical allies are knocked off one by one.
At last week’s cabinet meeting, Secretary of State Marco Rubio described Trump’s foreign policy as transformational, ‘because for the first time in a long time we have a president who basically puts America at the forefront of every decision we make in our in relations with the world.’
In Venezuela, the Department of War is indeed playing offense, as Trump promised, but the opponent isn’t really Maduro, it’s Putin, who may soon find out that another of his pariah allies is off the board forever.