The Trader Harbor
  • Business
  • Politics
  • World News
  • Stocks
  • Business
  • Politics
  • World News
  • Stocks

The Trader Harbor

Stocks

S&P 500 Now in Weakest Seasonal Period…Or Is It?

by admin May 21, 2025
May 21, 2025
S&P 500 Now in Weakest Seasonal Period…Or Is It?

We’ve all heard the classic market maxim, “Sell in May and go away.”  For many investors, that’s the introduction to market seasonality that suggests a six month period where it’s just best to avoid stocks altogether.

Through my own experience, complemented with interviews with seasonality experts like ”  We’ll dig deeper into the history of “Sell in May,” analyze summer trends in recent years, and focus on signs to follow in the weeks and months ahead!  Sign up HERE for this free event!


It turns out that the reason why “sell in May” has often worked out is less about May being super weak, but more about how major lows have usually come in the fall months.  Since the COVID low in early 2020, we’ve experienced major lows in September or October every year except for 2024.

Spring and Early Summer Have Been Crazy Strong

When we focus on the last five years, we can see that the May-June-July period has been consistently strong.  In fact, May and July have seen bullish trends every year since 2019.  So while investors often talk about the “summer doldrums” and weakness into the hot summer months, the recent evidence would suggest otherwise.

The weakest months since the COVID low have actually been January, February, September, and October.  So again, it’s been less about weakness in the spring, and much more about weaker price action into the traditional low in September or October.  Also note the strength in November, where the market is almost always rallying off a major low and setting up for a positive finish to the calendar year!

Will 2025 Follow the Normal Seasonal Pattern?

As I mentioned earlier, I like to think of seasonal patterns as tendencies.  There is no guarantee that July will be strong, and there is no way I can tell you for sure that the market will make yet another major low in September.  Seasonality tells you the general bias to the markets, but mindful investors know the most important evidence is price itself.

Given the extreme rally off the early April low, we’ve seen a rapid rotation from bearish sentiment to more bullish outlooks as investors have started to believe in the new uptrend phase.  This week’s price gap higher for the S&P 500 could provide a perfect support range to monitor in the coming weeks and months.

If the S&P 500 is able to hold 5750, and remain above the support range set from the gap earlier this month, then perhaps the equity markets will follow the same pattern as recent years and remain strong into August.

If, however, the S&P 500 is unable to hold this key support range, and we also confirm that breakdown with weaker momentum readings and deteriorating breadth conditions, then the S&P 500 may be charting a new course through what has become a strong period in the calendar year.

RR#6,

Dave

PS- Ready to upgrade your investment process?  Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

marketmisbehavior.com

https://www.youtube.com/c/MarketMisbehavior

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice.  The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.  

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication.    Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

0
FacebookTwitterGoogle +Pinterest
previous post
Emerging Stocks to Watch – Breakouts, Momentum & Upgrades!
next post
Levi Strauss to sell Dockers to brand management firm Authentic Brands Group

Related Posts

RRG Indicates That non-Mega Cap Technology Stocks Are...

April 12, 2024

Market Rally or Fakeout? How Politics and Earnings...

April 12, 2025

Finding and Trading Oversold Conditions within Long-term Uptrends

November 5, 2024

Are the Once High-Flying MAG 7 Stocks Just...

February 12, 2025

Equities Struggle in Strong “NoGo” as Materials try...

April 23, 2024

MEM TV: Small Cap STOCKS SHINE! 4 Names...

March 30, 2024

Sentiment Signals Suggest Skepticism

April 25, 2025

Seasonal Sector Investing in the Fall: Top Sectors...

July 17, 2024

Is a New Market Uptrend Starting? Key Signals...

March 15, 2025

S&P 500 Approaches 100-Day Moving Average: Is Now...

April 22, 2024

    Stay updated with the latest news, exclusive offers, and special promotions. Sign up now and be the first to know! As a member, you'll receive curated content, insider tips, and invitations to exclusive events. Don't miss out on being part of something special.


    By opting in you agree to receive emails from us and our affiliates. Your information is secure and your privacy is protected.

    Latest

    • The Real Drivers of This Market: AI, Semis & Robotics

      August 31, 2025
    • S&P 500 Breaking Out Again: What This Means for Your Portfolio

      August 31, 2025
    • Epstein estate to hand over ‘birthday book’ to lawmakers, House Dem says

      August 31, 2025
    • Dyan Cannon denied White House entry after lying about her age on passport documents

      August 31, 2025
    • Israel eliminates Houthi prime minister in Yemen airstrike targeting senior government officials

      August 31, 2025
    • Sen. Bernie Sanders calls on RFK Jr. to resign following departure of CDC officials

      August 31, 2025

    Categories

    • Business (1,370)
    • Politics (4,370)
    • Stocks (1,619)
    • Uncategorized (45)
    • World News (1,363)
    • About us
    • Contact us
    • Privacy Policy
    • Terms & Conditions

    Disclaimer: TheTraderHarbor, its managers, its employees, and assigns (collectively “The Company”) do not make any guarantee or warranty about what is advertised above. Information provided by this website is for research purposes only and should not be considered as personalized financial advice. The Company is not affiliated with, nor does it receive compensation from, any specific security. The Company is not registered or licensed by any governing body in any jurisdiction to give investing advice or provide investment recommendation. Any investments recommended here should be taken into consideration only after consulting with your investment advisor and after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

    Copyright © 2025 thetraderharbor.com | All Rights Reserved