The Trader Harbor
  • Business
  • Politics
  • World News
  • Stocks
  • Business
  • Politics
  • World News
  • Stocks

The Trader Harbor

Stocks

Two Down and Two to Go – Capitulation and Thrust are just a Start

by admin May 4, 2025
May 4, 2025
Two Down and Two to Go – Capitulation and Thrust are just a Start

The market does not always follow the same script or sequence, but bear markets typically end with a bottoming process marked by specific stages. These include capitulation, a short-term reversal-thrust, a follow-through thrust and long-term regime change. The first two stages mark downside excess and the initial turn around, while the latter two signal strong follow through. Today’s report will look at the first two phases, and preview the last two.

Phase 1: Capitulation

The capitulation phase of a bear market occurs when traders throw in the towel as downside momentum and selling pressure accelerate. Usually, the capitulation phase occurs after an extended decline, and this phase is the first step to a bottom. The chart below shows SPY with Bollinger Bands (200,3), %B (200,3) and S&P 500 Percent Above 200-day SMA ($SPXA200R). Signs of capitulation emerge when %B is below 0 and/or fewer than 20% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day SMAs. The blue dashed lines show capitulation in June 2022, September 2022 and early April 2025. Note that we initially covered this capitulation phase in a report on April 8th.

Phase 2: Short-term Thrust Signals (ZBT)

Phase 2 is marked by a sharp-reversal from oversold extremes and an upside thrust. The Zweig Breadth Thrust is perhaps the most famous thrust indicator these days. We covered the ZBT extensively over the last few weeks and introduced a strategy using this indicator. The chart below shows the S&P 1500 ZBT indicator in the lower window (10-day EMA of S&P 1500 AD%). A thrust signal triggered on April 24th and stocks followed through with further gains.  

Two Down and Two to Go

The capitulation phase showed excessive selling pressure and the thrust phase marked a short-term reversal. These are bullish events, but the market cup is not yet half full. SPY remains below its 200-day SMA and the late March high (see chart above). Medium-term thrust indicators have yet to trigger and long-term breadth remains bearish. The 14% surge over the last 17 days is impressive, but keep in mind that SPY surged 10% in nine days in March 2022, which was a bear market bounce.

TrendInvestorPro produced a report this week covering the four phases – and what to watch going forward. Click here to take a trial and get immediate access.

  • Phase 1: Capitulation
  • Phase 2: Short-term Thrust Signals
  • Phase 3: Medium-term Thrust Signals
  • Capitulation and Thrust Indexes
  • Phase 4: Long-term Indicators turn Bullish
  • Short-term Improvements, but Longer Term 

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////

0
FacebookTwitterGoogle +Pinterest
previous post
World Press Freedom Day: Release my father Jimmy Lai, who published what China’s leaders did not want to hear
next post
Top 10 Stock Charts For May 2025: Breakouts, Trends & Big Moves!

Related Posts

SMCI Stock Surges: How to Invest Wisely Now

June 27, 2025

Halloween Scare: The Stock Market Ends October on...

November 1, 2024

Does the Market Have Bad Breadth?

October 5, 2024

S&P 500 Above 5400: Economic Optimism or Irrational...

June 13, 2024

China Tariffs Drive Upside for Rare Earth Minerals

May 15, 2024

Finding Emerging Leaders within Key Groups

June 15, 2024

Sector Rotation Update: Value Stocks and Bonds Lead...

April 19, 2025

Stock Market Today: Real Estate and Tech Lead,...

September 11, 2024

Sentiment And Small Caps Are A 1-2 Punch,...

March 5, 2024

Small Caps are Set to Skyrocket in 2025—Here’s...

December 12, 2024

    Stay updated with the latest news, exclusive offers, and special promotions. Sign up now and be the first to know! As a member, you'll receive curated content, insider tips, and invitations to exclusive events. Don't miss out on being part of something special.


    By opting in you agree to receive emails from us and our affiliates. Your information is secure and your privacy is protected.

    Latest

    • Bed Bath & Beyond relaunches with first store in Nashville, plans dozens more

      August 10, 2025
    • The Real Drivers of This Market: AI, Semis & Robotics

      August 10, 2025
    • S&P 500 Breaking Out Again: What This Means for Your Portfolio

      August 10, 2025
    • Sydney Sweeney jeans controversy making advertising great again

      August 10, 2025
    • Nagasaki mayor issues chilling warning on 80th anniversary of atomic bombing

      August 10, 2025
    • Kash Patel celebrates major FBI achievements and record seizures during Trump’s first 200 days in office

      August 10, 2025

    Categories

    • Business (1,330)
    • Politics (4,206)
    • Stocks (1,577)
    • Uncategorized (45)
    • World News (1,323)
    • About us
    • Contact us
    • Privacy Policy
    • Terms & Conditions

    Disclaimer: TheTraderHarbor, its managers, its employees, and assigns (collectively “The Company”) do not make any guarantee or warranty about what is advertised above. Information provided by this website is for research purposes only and should not be considered as personalized financial advice. The Company is not affiliated with, nor does it receive compensation from, any specific security. The Company is not registered or licensed by any governing body in any jurisdiction to give investing advice or provide investment recommendation. Any investments recommended here should be taken into consideration only after consulting with your investment advisor and after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

    Copyright © 2025 thetraderharbor.com | All Rights Reserved