The Trader Harbor
  • Business
  • Politics
  • World News
  • Stocks
  • Business
  • Politics
  • World News
  • Stocks

The Trader Harbor

Stocks

SPY Reverses Long-term Uptrend with Outsized Move – Now What?

by admin March 15, 2025
March 15, 2025
SPY Reverses Long-term Uptrend with Outsized Move – Now What?

The weight of the evidence shifted to the bears over the last few weeks. First, the major index ETFs reversed their long-term uptrends with Bollinger Band signals, our breadth models turned net negative and yield spreads widened. This report will focus on the breakdown in the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY), which represents the single most important benchmark for US stocks.

The SPY chart below shows weekly candlesticks and the 40-week SMA, equivalent to the 200-day SMA. On the top right, we can see a break below support from the January low and a break below the 40-week SMA with an outsized decline. An outsized decline is an exceptionally sharp, deep decline that can derail an uptrend. As of Thursday’s close, SPY had fallen over 9% in 15 trading days, the largest 15 day decline since September 2022. This exceptionally strong selling pressure pushed prices below the demand line (support) and a key long-term moving average. Note that a similar break occurred in January 2022, which we covered in a report and video on Friday.

Large-caps are also starting to lag the broader market. The middle window shows the SPY/RSP ratio breaking below its 40-week SMA for the first time since early March 2023. After outperforming for two years, large-caps (SPY) are underperforming the average stock in the S&P 500 (RSP). SPY also started underperforming RSP in January 2022, which is when the 2022 bear market started. 

So now what? SPY became short-term oversold this week and ripe for a bounce. The broken support zone and underside of the 40-week SMA turn into the first resistance levels to watch (blue shading). We are now trading under a bear market regime so I would expect any bounce to fail in the 580 area.

Our reports and videos covered the following this week:

  • Six of the nine breadth-model indicators triggered bearish signals.
  • Yield spreads widened as stress increased in the credit markets.
  • Six major index ETFs triggered bearish Bollinger Band breaks.
  • Precious and industrial metals ETFs extended on breakouts.
  • Applying lessons from the 2022 bear market to the current situation.

Click here to take a trial and gain immediate access!

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

0
FacebookTwitterGoogle +Pinterest
previous post
Is a New Market Uptrend Starting? Key Signals & Trading Strategies
next post
Egg prices are falling, with a dozen now less than $5

Related Posts

Hotel Stocks Spike: Why You Should Add These...

February 8, 2025

Stock Market Today: Tech Tumbles as Mega-Cap Stocks...

September 4, 2024

Recognize The New Leaders NOW!

September 1, 2024

Three Stock Ideas as S&P 500 Treads Water

May 30, 2024

It’s Time To Consider These Areas As Emerging...

July 15, 2024

Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) Internals Still a Problem

November 2, 2024

What Does This Mean for the S&P 500...

August 21, 2024

My Durable Advantage as an Investor is My...

May 24, 2025

Why Stocks are STILL the BEST Investment

July 17, 2024

A Bullish Opportunity in CrowdStrike (CRWD) with OptionsPlay...

November 26, 2024

    Stay updated with the latest news, exclusive offers, and special promotions. Sign up now and be the first to know! As a member, you'll receive curated content, insider tips, and invitations to exclusive events. Don't miss out on being part of something special.


    By opting in you agree to receive emails from us and our affiliates. Your information is secure and your privacy is protected.

    Latest

    • Ben & Jerry’s co-founder resigns, claiming parent company Unilever ‘silenced’ its campaigning

      September 21, 2025
    • The Real Drivers of This Market: AI, Semis & Robotics

      September 21, 2025
    • S&P 500 Breaking Out Again: What This Means for Your Portfolio

      September 21, 2025
    • Trump caps UK trip with $350B tech pact, heads to Arizona for Kirk’s memorial service

      September 21, 2025
    • How AI browsers open the door to new scams

      September 21, 2025
    • WATCH: Defiant Kash Patel says he’s ‘proud’ to lead FBI after explosive hearing

      September 21, 2025

    Categories

    • Business (1,388)
    • Politics (4,539)
    • Stocks (1,661)
    • Uncategorized (45)
    • World News (1,381)
    • About us
    • Contact us
    • Privacy Policy
    • Terms & Conditions

    Disclaimer: TheTraderHarbor, its managers, its employees, and assigns (collectively “The Company”) do not make any guarantee or warranty about what is advertised above. Information provided by this website is for research purposes only and should not be considered as personalized financial advice. The Company is not affiliated with, nor does it receive compensation from, any specific security. The Company is not registered or licensed by any governing body in any jurisdiction to give investing advice or provide investment recommendation. Any investments recommended here should be taken into consideration only after consulting with your investment advisor and after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

    Copyright © 2025 thetraderharbor.com | All Rights Reserved