The Trader Harbor
  • Business
  • Politics
  • World News
  • Stocks
  • Business
  • Politics
  • World News
  • Stocks

The Trader Harbor

Stocks

What Does a Market Top Look Like?

by admin July 20, 2024
July 20, 2024
What Does a Market Top Look Like?

The S&P 500 remains in a primary uptrend, as confirmed by a fairly consistent pattern of higher highs and higher lows. But what would confirm that a top is in place for our major equity benchmarks? To answer that, it may be helpful to review other charts that have recently experienced tops, as the technical configurations are often quite similar.

Today, we’ll review the recent price action in Domino’s Pizza Group (DPZ), identify the key technical characteristics that define its recent downswing, and relate that to what we may see on the S&P 500 chart.

An Accumulation Phase Occurs When Buyers Outweigh Sellers

Before we can confirm a bearish rotation on a chart like DPZ, we first need to clearly define the uptrend phase that happens beforehand. This goes back to classic Dow Theory, and also combines technical indicators like moving averages to track the upward pace of price action.


After many months of underperformance, small caps are starting to thrive again. How should investors think about small cap stocks, what factors are contributing to this outperformance, and what does all this tells us about leadership rotation in the coming months? Join me for my next FREE webcast, Small Caps, Big Dreams: The Great Rotation of 2024, as we answer these questions and more! Sign up today and mark your calendar for Wednesday, July 24th at 1pm ET.


From the October 2023 low through the end of April 2024, Domino’s experienced a classic Dow Theory uptrend formed by a pattern of higher highs and higher lows. Each move higher shows that buying power is overcoming any selling pressure that develops, and the higher lows show that dip buyers are interested in accumulating shares on short-term weakness. The price remained above two upward-sloping moving averages, and the RSI remained in a bullish range, generally above the 40 level.

The Checklist to Identify a Distribution Phase

Note how all of those factors changed in May and June. Instead of making another new 52-week high in June, the price stalled out at its previous peak. Instead of achieving another higher low on the next pullback, the price broke below the May swing low around $500. The RSI broke below 40 soon after, indicating a rapid deterioration in price momentum.

So while this week’s gap lower surprised many market practitioners, mindful investors would have recognized all the classic signs of distribution before this week’s sudden drop.

The Signs to Watch for the S&P 500

How does this relate to the S&P 500 chart? For now, the SPY is still in a primary uptrend of higher highs and higher lows. The price remains above two upward-sloping moving averages, and the RSI remained above 40 even after Friday’s drop.

What would tell us that the S&P 500 has rotated to a distribution phase?  Simply follow the playbook that DPZ displayed in recent months. Look for a failed attempt at a new high, which would suggest an exhaustion of buyers. Note if the subsequent pullback is unable to hold the late June low around $540, which would mean that dip buyers are no longer willing to buy on short-term weakness. And pay attention to the RSI, because if it breaks below 40 on a pullback, that is often a predecessor of much weaker price action.

No one knows what will happen next for the S&P 500. But the good news is that we can review the lessons of market history and notice what consistent patterns have occurred at previous market topics. As I was often reminded in my early days in the industry, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes!”

RR#6,

Dave

P.S. Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!


David Keller, CMT

Chief Market Strategist

StockCharts.com


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

0
FacebookTwitterGoogle +Pinterest
previous post
Hindenburg Omen: The Truth, Effects, and Duration
next post
How a single failure can take down a fragile web of global commerce

Related Posts

Tech Stocks Take a Breather: Is Now the...

June 22, 2024

Surprise Negative Divergence on Nasdaq Advance-Decline Line

March 27, 2024

Large-Cap Growth Threatens the S&P Rally

June 26, 2024

$4,000 Gold? Analysts Eye New Highs on Inflation...

April 23, 2025

Double Tops on Bitcoin and the Dollar

February 15, 2025

Stealth AI Stocks Are Taking Off in a...

October 5, 2024

Will the S&P 500 Break 5000 by September?

July 28, 2024

MarketCarpets Secrets: How to Spot Winning Stocks in...

November 19, 2024

This S&P 500 Rally is Defying the Experts...

September 20, 2024

Market Rally Broadens – New All-Time Highs?

November 26, 2024

    Stay updated with the latest news, exclusive offers, and special promotions. Sign up now and be the first to know! As a member, you'll receive curated content, insider tips, and invitations to exclusive events. Don't miss out on being part of something special.


    By opting in you agree to receive emails from us and our affiliates. Your information is secure and your privacy is protected.

    Latest

    • The Real Drivers of This Market: AI, Semis & Robotics

      July 21, 2025
    • What Musk’s fracture with Trump means for GOP’s future: ‘Beating heart of the Republican Party’

      July 21, 2025
    • Trump’s housing chief rips Powell for blowing millions on Fed facelift during housing crisis he perpetuates

      July 21, 2025
    • Trump celebrates 6 months back in office: US ‘totally revived’ after being ‘DEAD’ under Biden

      July 21, 2025
    • Biden admin spent hefty sum of US tax dollars to upgrade embassy swimming pools in Iraq, Russia

      July 21, 2025
    • Trump heads to Scotland, continues ironing out trade deals after notching six months back in office

      July 21, 2025

    Categories

    • Business (1,299)
    • Politics (4,040)
    • Stocks (1,535)
    • Uncategorized (45)
    • World News (1,292)
    • About us
    • Contact us
    • Privacy Policy
    • Terms & Conditions

    Disclaimer: TheTraderHarbor, its managers, its employees, and assigns (collectively “The Company”) do not make any guarantee or warranty about what is advertised above. Information provided by this website is for research purposes only and should not be considered as personalized financial advice. The Company is not affiliated with, nor does it receive compensation from, any specific security. The Company is not registered or licensed by any governing body in any jurisdiction to give investing advice or provide investment recommendation. Any investments recommended here should be taken into consideration only after consulting with your investment advisor and after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

    Copyright © 2025 thetraderharbor.com | All Rights Reserved